Hard drives have a lifespan of three to five years. But I've seen some die after two years. I have a few that are still chugging along after 5 years. There's really no good way to judge how long one will last.
There may be signs, though. If you hear a popping or a cat-like sound, your drive may be failing. Problems starting Windows may also be caused by a failing drive. I had a drive that would disappear and then reappear in Windows Explorer. A few days after this started, it died.
Programs are available to monitor the health of hard drives. They use the drive's self-monitoring tools. HDD Health and HD Tune are two such utilities. They're free.
Advance notice is always helpful. But I wouldn't count on it. Back up your data. Remember the other kind of crash–when your laptop crashes to the floor. Those crashes come without warning. So, there's no substitute for backing up.
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